Interview with Rob Patterson - Insights and Predictions

I had the pleasure of speaking with social media consultant Rob Paterson last Wednesday. In 2005, Rob was instrumental in fostering the cultural change at NPR that resulted in a new organizational approach to journalism. Through one year of meetings and group exercises, NPR changed is focus from broadcast to engagement. If you have ever listened to their numerous and high-quality podcasts, you have witnessed the fruits of the change.

Our conversation ranged over many topics, but our shared passion for grappling with "the future of news" kept us on task.

We agreed that newspapers as an institution are in trouble, at least partially as a result of their emphatic defense of the professional journalistic culture. I then asked if there are any newspapers that can make the cultural changes you advocate? Rob's response was, "It's too late!" They would need to disengage from print and reengage with digital media in order to remain relevant. No newspapers have the financial cushion to survive this transition.

To describe the reforms to date at newspapers, Rob used an analogy to naval warfare at the time the steam engine was being developed. Ships were built in modern styles with modern materials, but still engaged in battle at extremely close range. We can all imagine what would happen if a modern battleship waited until it was 10 feet from its target to fire. The New York Times seems to have all the modern trappings, but the organization is still set up to produce high-quality, high-cost journalism supported by print revenue sources. A quick and dirty analysis of the New York Times 2008 Annual Report revealed that online advertisements only represent 17% of their ad revenue 10% of total revenue. This information was not presented, so I derived it using revenue figures from 2007 and 2008 and the percent change of print ads (Down 16.7%) and online ads (Up 8.7%).

Our talk then turned to the future... the fun part. While most newspapers are no longer producing the content they once were, news has not gone out of style. This leaves us with a lowered barrier to entry for other players. In a digital world of infinite content, content is no longer what is valuable; finding relevant information is. The NY Times is still a great website for a snapshot of world events, but it could be better if they incorporated more content not produced in-house. New news companies will emerge that both provide more high-quality content and have their costs in line with internet revenues. By leveraging other companies with extensive resources who stand to gain from the new order (Read: Google and Apple), they can gain a strong foothold.

I immediately thought of the Lawrence, KS website that uses an automated technology to gather and organize most of their information. Just compare the website with the LJ World, think of massive difference in cost structures, and guess who will be around in 5 years. I predicted it will be the smaller cities that lose their news sources first that will develop the new way of doing business. Rob's response was, "The most interesting place in Chaos is the edge." That's exactly where I want to go.